The Bureau of Labor Statistics' August employment report, due out Friday, is expected to show another month of modest hiring, extending what has been described as a relatively jobless summer for the US economy.
Going into the report, the Dow Jones consensus estimate called for nonfarm payrolls to rise by about 53,000 in August, a pickup after the prior two months showed a combined net loss of roughly 3,000 jobs. That would follow a July report that surprised forecasters: payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 that month, driven by a drop of 53,000 government jobs along with softness in retail, leisure and hospitality. May and June figures were also revised down, leaving combined employment for those two months 103,000 lower than previously reported. Average hourly earnings growth has slowed too, with the 12 month pace down to 3.2 percent in July, the lowest since May 2021.
Forecasters are not all in agreement on where August will land. While the broad Wall Street consensus points to modest growth, at least one bank, Fifth Third Commercial Bank, has forecast a decline of around 25,000 jobs, citing a soft reading from ADP's private payrolls data and the tail end of pandemic era temporary protected status changes affecting some workers. The unemployment rate is expected to hold close to 4.1 percent, a level that has stayed low in part because the labor force itself has been shrinking, down by roughly 1.3 million workers over the twelve months through July as more older workers retire and fewer new graduates and immigrants enter the workforce.
Despite the softer hiring numbers, employers have largely avoided broad layoffs. Weekly jobless claims have stayed in a normal range, and outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas has said the pace of layoffs in 2026 is the slowest in four years. Fed officials have described the overall picture as "stable" or in "satisfactory shape," language that has allowed the central bank to focus more of its attention on inflation rather than on a weakening jobs market.
The size of any revisions to June and July figures will be watched closely, since recent downward revisions have already reshaped the picture of the summer labor market.
Why does this report matter so much right now?
It is the last major jobs report before the Federal Reserve's September meeting, and officials have said labor market data will help guide their rate decision.
Has the labor market been improving or weakening in 2026?
It has been mixed: hiring has slowed compared with prior years, but layoffs have stayed low and the unemployment rate has remained relatively steady.