Brazilians are at the polls today for the second round of their presidential election, choosing between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The race has drawn attention well beyond Brazil because of what it might say about the direction of politics across Latin America. A survey taken in July by the pollster Datafolha found 44 percent of Brazilians describing themselves as right leaning or center right, compared with 39 percent on the left or center left. That is a reversal from 2022, when the balance tilted the other way, the year Lula won his third term. In the first round of voting earlier this month, Flávio Bolsonaro outperformed expectations, finishing with 48.24 percent of valid votes to Lula's 43.33 percent, a gap of roughly 590,000 votes.
Analysts who study Brazilian politics point to tactical voting as part of the explanation. Most of the minor candidates in the first round were on the right, so when their supporters consolidated behind a single alternative in the runoff, that alternative was far more likely to be Flávio Bolsonaro than Lula, since he was ideologically closer to those other candidates. There is also a durable bloc of voters who reject Lula's Workers' Party outright, even if they do not consider themselves part of the broader Bolsonaro movement, and who are determined to see Lula not win a fourth term.
The campaign itself has been pointed. Both sides have accused the other of serving outside interests rather than ordinary Brazilians, and crime, corruption, and the cost of living have all featured heavily in the closing arguments. Whoever wins will govern a country that remains one of the world's largest economies and a central voice in global climate and trade diplomacy.
Polls close this evening in Brazil, with the electoral authority expected to begin releasing results shortly after. A final, certified outcome is expected within hours given Brazil's fully electronic voting system.
Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?
He is a Brazilian senator and the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, running as the right's candidate in this year's runoff.
When will we know the winner?
Brazil's electronic voting system typically produces a certified result within hours of polls closing this evening.