Brazil, Latin America's largest democracy and economy, holds the first round of its presidential election today. The two candidates drawing the most attention are President Lula da Silva, who is seeking another term, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who has emerged as the standard bearer for the political movement built around his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro.
The two campaigns spent their final day making their closing case in São Paulo, Brazil's most populous state and the source of roughly a fifth of the country's electorate, a reflection of how much weight that single state carries in a national race. Under Brazil's electoral system, a candidate needs an outright majority of valid votes to win in the first round. If nobody clears that bar today, the top two finishers will meet again in a runoff later this month.
Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil from 2019 to 2023, is not on the ballot himself; Brazil's top electoral court ruled him ineligible to hold office for a period extending toward the end of the decade, which is part of why his son stepped forward as a candidate carrying the family's political brand. Lula, for his part, has already served as Brazil's president twice before, from 2003 to 2010 and again since January 2023, after defeating Bolsonaro in the 2022 election.
Brazil is a major trading partner for the United States and a key voice in global forums on everything from climate policy to agriculture, so the outcome matters well beyond its borders. Markets in São Paulo and currency traders watching the real have been bracing for volatility depending on how close the race turns out to be.
Official results are expected to come in through the evening and overnight. If no candidate wins a majority, a second round would follow later in October, extending the campaign by several more weeks.
Is Jair Bolsonaro running?
No. Brazil's top electoral court ruled him ineligible to run, and his son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, is standing in his place.
When will we know the winner?
First-round results are expected tonight; if no one wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers follows later in October.