The Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision is just days away, and it will be one of the most closely watched meetings of the year because it comes under relatively new leadership and amid a shifting policy stance.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting body, will meet October 27 and 28, with the rate decision announced at 2 p.m. Eastern time on the 28th, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh thirty minutes later. The current federal funds rate sits in a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, effective since September 17, after the Fed raised rates at its previous meeting. According to market pricing tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, there is roughly an 80% chance the Fed holds rates steady this time, with only a small minority of surveyed brokerages expecting another hike in October.
That marks a notable shift from where the Fed stood just a year or two earlier, when much of the public conversation around the central bank centered on how quickly it would cut rates to support the economy. Now, the committee is described as being in a tightening bias, meaning officials are more focused on guarding against inflation picking back up than on supporting growth. At the Fed's September meeting, most policymakers projected at least one more rate hike before year's end, with a smaller group forecasting two. If the Fed does hold steady this month, attention will turn to whether any committee members dissent by pushing for an immediate hike instead, a signal of how divided the group is on the path ahead.
Markets are already looking past this meeting to December. Traders currently assign a notably higher probability, in the range of 75% to 85%, to a rate hike at the Fed's final meeting of the year on December 9, compared with the far lower odds of an October move. This October meeting is also one of four in 2026 that does not include an updated set of economic projections from Fed officials, commonly known as the dot plot, so investors will have to rely more heavily on the statement language and Warsh's press conference comments for clues about the committee's thinking.
For everyday borrowers and savers, a steady rate in October would mean little immediate change to mortgage rates, credit card rates or savings account yields, though a December hike, if it happens, would push borrowing costs modestly higher heading into 2027.
Watch Chair Warsh's press conference language on October 28 for signals about whether the committee still sees a December hike as likely, and whether any officials dissent from a hold decision.
Will the Fed raise rates this month?
Markets see it as unlikely, pricing roughly an 80% chance the Fed holds its benchmark rate steady at its October 27 to 28 meeting.
Who is the current Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh currently holds the position and will give the post-decision press conference on October 28.