The Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week, with its decision due at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 28, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
The federal funds rate currently sits in a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent after the Fed raised rates in September. As of this week, futures markets were pricing roughly an 85 percent chance that the Fed holds rates steady this time, with the remaining odds split between a quarter-point hike and almost no chance of a cut. That has left this meeting widely described as a likely hawkish hold, meaning the Fed keeps rates where they are but leaves the door open to raising them again before the end of the year. Minutes from the September meeting, released earlier this month, showed that several officials believe one more increase would likely be appropriate by year end, and some described current rates as not yet restrictive enough to fully cool price pressures.
The backdrop is a stock market that has been resilient but choppy. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high of 27,599.89 earlier this month, on October 6, and major US indexes remain higher than a year ago even after pulling back modestly over the past several weeks. Elevated crude oil prices and uncertainty over the Fed's next moves have been weighing on sentiment in recent sessions, a pattern echoed in markets from Mumbai to New York.
This meeting falls between the Fed's September projections meeting and its final one of the year in December, meaning no new economic projections or rate forecasts, known as the dot plot, will be released alongside Wednesday's decision. That makes Fed Chair Warsh's press conference the main source of guidance investors will have on where rates go next.
Markets will parse Wednesday's statement and press conference closely for hints about December, the Fed's last meeting of 2026.
Will the Fed cut rates this week?
No, a cut is seen as essentially off the table; the debate is between holding rates steady or raising them another quarter point.
Who is the Fed chair making this decision?
Kevin Warsh is the current Federal Reserve chair and will hold a press conference after Wednesday's announcement.