The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil, is nearly empty of traffic this week, and that is the clearest sign of how serious the ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has become.
The war, which began on February 28, 2026, followed an earlier, shorter round of fighting in June 2025 known as the Twelve Day War. It has since drawn in Iran's regional allies and, in recent weeks, spilled directly into one of the busiest shipping lanes on earth. Iran targeted at least a dozen commercial vessels near the strait between October 11 and 16, according to reports from the region. Shipping-tracking data cited by maritime monitors showed only a handful of tankers transiting the strait on October 18, compared with a typical pre-crisis flow of about 85 ships a day. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was trading just above $109 a barrel on Wednesday.
On October 20, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the country would completely halt exports of its enriched nuclear material. A day later, the Financial Times reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had drawn up plans for a multi-day military operation against Iran, timed around Israel's own parliamentary election on October 27, but that the plan had not gone forward amid concerns in Washington about the proximity to the November 3 United States midterm elections. None of the reports of tankers striking mines in the strait in recent days have been confirmed by an independent maritime authority, and several outlets have noted that direct evidence remains elusive.
Diplomacy has continued alongside the fighting. A Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran this week, and Israeli and Lebanese delegations were reported to be meeting separately in Florida. Iran's foreign ministry said it had reached out to Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi movement to help mediate, though it had not yet received a response. The Pentagon recently updated its own accounting of the toll of the war, now putting the total at 21 fatalities and 865 injuries among U.S. personnel since the conflict began, a revision from earlier estimates.
Energy traders are watching for any confirmed disruption to tanker traffic through Hormuz, since even a partial, sustained slowdown in the strait could move global oil prices well beyond their current range. Diplomats are also watching whether Qatar's outreach, or a response from Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, produces any formal talks before Israel's October 27 election.
Why has the Strait of Hormuz nearly emptied out?
Shippers have been avoiding the waterway after Iran targeted at least a dozen commercial vessels near the strait in mid-October, and reports of mine strikes, though unconfirmed, have added to the caution.
Is a ceasefire close?
Not clearly. Qatar and Iran's foreign ministry have both floated mediation, but there is no confirmed breakthrough yet.